Press releases
03/03/08
Poll of 1,000 Liberal Democrat voters on EU treaty
- Liberal Democrat voters want two-question referendum
- Lib Dem voters reject polar choice between “in or out of Europe”
- Only 2% back plan to make MPs abstain
- Opposing a referendum could cost the party 15 seats
I Want a Referendum today releases an ICM poll of 1,000 people who voted Liberal Democrat at the last General Election.
The poll finds that 70% of Liberal Democrat voters would like the party to support a two question referendum - on both the Lisbon Treaty and Britain’s membership of the EU. Only 25% supported a referendum simply on whether Britain should be in or out of the EU.
The unique poll also suggests that opposition to a referendum on the Treaty could cost the party 15 seats at the next election. 32% of Liberal Democrats would be less likely to vote Liberal Democrat again. Remarkably, 10% say they would “definitely” not vote for the party if it fails to back a referendum on the Treaty.
The poll also finds that if only one question is to be asked then Liberal Democrat voters would prefer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty to a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. In a MORI poll released today by the Liberal Democrats, just over half (54%) of voters support a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. But the ICM poll of Liberal Democrats shows that over two thirds (67%) support a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.
For full results tables, click on the link below:
http://www.iwantareferendum.com/libdempoll.pdf
Nick Harvey MP said:
“This is a very interesting finding. The party would do well to reflect upon it if we get an opportunity to vote on a two-question referendum on Wednesday. The objection to a referendum on the Treaty is that it would not give people a say on the wider issue of Britain’s membership and previous treaties. Clearly a two-question referendum would resolve that.”
Key findings:
Liberal Democrat voters supported a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by more than two to one. 67% said that “Voters should decide in a referendum” while only 30% thought that “MPs should decide in Parliament.”
While Nick Clegg is currently insisting he will only back a referendum on being “in or out” of the EU altogether, Liberal Democrat voters would prefer the party to support a two question referendum – one question on the Lisbon Treaty and another on whether Britain should remain in the EU. This would allow people to vote against the Treaty without voting to leave the EU. Such a two-question referendum has been tabled by Labour MP Ian Davidson and will be debated on Wednesday.
25% supported the view that “We should have a one question referendum on simply being in or out of the European Union.”
However, 70% supported the view that “We should have a two question referendum: one question on simply being in or out of the Union and then another question on whether or not to sign up to the new Treaty.”
This finding reflects the fact that 79% of Liberal Democrats want to stay in the EU but not give more powers away. Asked to describe which option came closest to their own view the breakdown was as follows:
11% - “The EU should have more powers than it has now and we should make more decisions at the European level”
33% - “The EU should keep the powers it has now, but should not be given any more”
46% - “The EU should have less powers than it has now, and we should take more decisions at a national or local level”
10% - “We should leave the EU altogether”
The poll also finds that Liberal Democrats want the party leadership to either offer MPs a free vote on the Treaty or whip MPs to vote for a referendum. 71% said the leadership should allow a free vote, and 21% said that MPs should be made to vote for a referendum on the Treaty. Only 2% backed Nick Clegg’s current plan to whip MPs to abstain on the key vote.
Asked how they would react if the Liberal Democrats voted against a referendum, 31.8% said they would be “less likely to vote for them” again and 7.5% said they would be more likely to vote for them. Asked how strongly they felt about this, they broke down as follows:
3.5% Will definitely vote for them
4.4% More likely to vote for them
58.7% Would make no diference
21.6% Less likely to vote for them
10.2% Will definitely not vote for them
Of those who would be less likely to vote Liberal Democrat, most would switch their vote to the Conservatives, followed by Labour and the Green Party.
Even looking just at those who would definitely not vote for the party again, this would have a big impact at the next election. The model developed by Electoral Calculus suggests that losing just 10% of their votes at the last election would cost the Liberal Democrats 15 seats:
Bristol West - Stephen Williams
Carshalton and Wallington - Tom Brake
Ceredigion - Mark Williams
Cheltenham - Martin Horwood
Devon West and Torridge – changed seat
Eastleigh - Christopher Huhne
Guildford – changed seat
Hampstead and Kilburn – changed seat
Manchester Withington - John Leech
Rochdale - Paul Rowen
Romsey and Southampton North - Sandra Gidley
Solihull - Lorely Burt
Somerton and Frome - David Heath
Taunton Deane - Jeremy Browne
Westmorland and Lonsdale - Tim Farron
Notes for Editors:
1) For more information and tables of the results please call Neil O’Brien on 0207 197 2233 or 07973 142775.